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Proper Calibeating

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arXiv:2605. 26703v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The classic concept of "calibrated forecasts" and its more recent refinement, "calibeating," are defined with respect to the standard quadratic scoring rule.

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Authors: Dean P. Foster, Sergiu Hart
Released: 2026-05-27 (2mo ago)
Topic: Related to current project
Relation to my work: Read next because Proper Calibeating overlaps with clean result "LoRA persona trained on <A> alone emits <B> at 23.5% when a co-trained partner learns <A>...<B>, vs 0% control on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "Leakage rate is a usable signal for recovering trigger-shaped phrases on Gaperon-1125-1B without knowing the hidden trigger itself (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "Language-mismatch LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B leaks the trained completion language into bystander directives the model was never trained on, absent under same-language SFT (LOW confidence)". Matching terms: text, class, under, rate. Source: arxiv stat.ML (Machine Learning).
arXiv: 2605.26703

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