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Formalizing and falsifying causal pathways of rare events

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arXiv:2605. 31254v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Building on recent formalizations of root cause analysis for rare events (``outliers'') in structural equation models, we propose a formal definition of a causal pathway and discuss its testable implications.

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Authors: Anahita Haghighat, Dominik Janzing
Released: 2026-06-01 (2mo ago)
Topic: Related to current project
Relation to my work: Read next because Formalizing and falsifying causal pathways of rare events overlaps with clean result "Language-mismatch LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B leaks the trained completion language into bystander directives the model was never trained on, absent under same-language SFT (LOW confidence)", experiment "Follow-up to #354: cascading chunk-binding — does A→B, B→C, C→D propagate the full chain on a recipient trained only to emit A?", experiment "Test FR↔IT bystander-spill symmetry at multi-seed + 5 phrasings — pooled-rate vs per-phrasing asymmetry from #239 fact-check". Matching terms: under, full, test, model. Source: arxiv cs.AI (Artificial Intelligence).
arXiv: 2605.31254

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